Perhaps What Is Meant Is the Collapse of Deadlines…
Johnny Kortbawi 30/08 14:50 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Israel Benjamin Netanyahu US Tom Barrack Lebanon Syria
Tom Barrack has made more than one misstep – mistakes that some might even consider political sins. The issue is not simply what he told journalists at Baabda Palace, but the deeper political and strategic implications of his words. At a time when the government is moving toward the point of no return on Barrack’s proposal, and after failing ...
Naim Qassem: Pro-Sovereignty Reformist
Johnny Kortbawi 26/08 16:00 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Hezbollah Israel Lebanese Army naim qassem
At its core, the issue is that Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, has been seeking ways to convince his audience that handing over the group’s weapons to the state has become inevitable, particularly in the wake of the party’s military and political setbacks suffered over the past year. Qassem has repeatedly approached ...
The Arrogance of Wasted Time
Johnny Kortbawi 22/08 18:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Hezbollah Israel Lebanese Army Washington Palestinian camps
The handover of Palestinian weapons from the camps to the Lebanese state marks the beginning of a historic shift: the effort to confine all arms within Lebanon and close a chapter that has weighed on the country for nearly six decades – the use of Lebanese soil as a battlefield for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. It is evident to all regional ...
A Negotiating Margin Out of Reach
Johnny Kortbawi 19/08 14:30 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Hezbollah Israel United Nations Tom Barrack Morgan Ortagus
Lebanon still has much to accomplish. Despite the government’s declarations, practical steps remain limited, leaving doubts about whether the country is honoring its commitments in the eyes of the international community. This was the core message conveyed during Tom Barrack and Morgan Ortagus’ meetings with Lebanese officials. The points ...
Larijani and the Original Sin
Johnny Kortbawi 15/08 09:00 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, is among the closest officials to the Supreme Leader Khamenei and a successor to figures like Qassem Suleimani, who shaped Iran’s regional security and political influence. Larijani’s latest visit to Lebanon, coming after recent Lebanese government decisions and ...
‘Axis of Resistance’ Calculations Come Up Short
Johnny Kortbawi 12/08 20:05 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Free Patriotic Movement Hezbollah Lebanese Forces
The entire “Axis of Resistance” has a recurring problem with numbers and calculations – a game it has often played and lost, sometimes with almost absurd results. If Hezbollah’s closest ally before its recent distancing to gain favor ahead of the elections – the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) – cannot get the numbers right, what hope ...
Mohammad Raad’s Misfortunes with Life and Death!
Johnny Kortbawi 09/08 15:35 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Mohammad Raad has served as a Lebanese MP for over three decades, since the first post-Taïf Parliament in 1992. As head of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc, which marked Hezbollah’s first parliamentary entry, Raad has witnessed all phases of post-war Lebanon. His combat experience is evident in his speech, marked by a stern expression even in ...
Trading Arms for Power: Hezbollah’s Political Bargain
Johnny Kortbawi 05/08 20:40 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Lebanon Hezbollah Israel United States
The issue of Hezbollah’s weapons is no longer confined to a small elite who once represented a silent majority and feared Hezbollah’s refusal to constructively engage. Today, the weapons file is firmly on the table, openly discussed under sustained Arab and international pressure. The August 5 Cabinet session holds historic significance, on ...
Welcome Back!
Johnny Kortbawi 02/08 20:30 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Hezbollah Israel Middle East Benjamin Netanyahu Washington ortagus
As soon as press leaks emerged suggesting that the Lebanese file was being taken away from US envoy Tom Barrack and handed back to former envoy Morgan Ortagus, a certain optimism resurfaced among the Lebanese. This might be explained by the fact that Ortagus is seen as more than just a US envoy; she has indeed become some kind of celebrity in ...
Same Mistakes, Different Times
Johnny Kortbawi 29/07 11:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Lebanese history is marked by a long string of repeated missteps, errors that quietly pile up as the country resists any course correction. They’re the product of a persistent pattern of poor decisions, while entrenched political forces keep trying, in vain, to turn the tide in their favor. Today, Lebanon is repeating a familiar mistake, one ...
Reluctant Settlements with No Preconditions
Johnny Kortbawi 25/07 15:30 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Hezbollah Israel United States Tom Barrack
Lebanon is in a position few would envy in the current round of settlements. This situation does not stem from a government crisis, but from the dominance of a single party. Had the state itself been responsible for the decisions that brought us here, the outcome—though difficult—might have been more acceptable. Unfortunately, Lebanon is now ...
Barrack to Lebanon: Address Your Internal Issues!
Johnny Kortbawi 22/07 09:00 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Lebanon Hezbollah United States Tom Barrack
Tom Barrack’s third visit to Lebanon warrants a careful reading between the lines—coming, as it does, after Beirut conveyed its message to Washington and received a US response. On his first trip, the US emissary was notably diplomatic and optimistic, speaking at length about Lebanon’s prospects. But that optimism was tempered ...
Baalbek: Timeless Heritage and Enduring Vision
Johnny Kortbawi 18/07 15:55 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Lebanon Baalbek Baalbek Festival
The Baalbek International Festival is far more than a dazzling display of performances and music. Baalbek, with its ancient past and the weight of history etched into its temples, transcends anything a single lifetime could fully comprehend. While the festival carries undeniable historical significance, it is also deeply intertwined with the very ...
Barrack, Greater Syria and Lebanon’s Precarious Future
Johnny Kortbawi 15/07 09:30 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Syria Lebanon Hezbollah Israel Middle East
It is remarkable how a single phrase—whether a diplomatic misstep or a calculated message—can ignite such a storm of debate and unease, both in Lebanon and abroad, especially at a moment when the specter of redrawn borders looms once again over the Middle East. Thomas Barrack’s recent remark ...
Gebran Bassil’s No-Win Choice
Johnny Kortbawi 11/07 20:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Gebran Bassil Free Patriotic Movement Gulf Hezbollah Joseph Aoun
One of the most powerful roles ever played by legendary Meryl Streep was that of Sophie in the iconic film Sophie’s Choice, now regarded as a masterpiece of world cinema. The movie delves into the ethical, psychological, and spiritual torment of making impossible choices in the darkest moments of human history. Based on both a true story and a ...
Tripoli of the Levant and the Challenges of Regional Maps
Johnny Kortbawi 08/07 11:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Israel is keenly aware that the Middle East’s numerous religious minorities harbor deep-rooted anxieties. As for the religious majority—namely, the Sunni community—its historical perspective is shaped less by the framework of modern nation-states and more through the prism of empire, inherited from the Ottoman era and substantially ...
Hezbollah’s Last Bargain
Johnny Kortbawi 05/07 13:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Hezbollah Amal Israel Lebanese Army Middle East
Hezbollah continues to maneuver under the weight of periodic foreign pressure, and the discourse of its remaining leadership around disarmament is beginning to shift. At the outset of the conflict, the party maintained an unyielding stance, categorically rejecting any discussion of surrendering its weapons and insisting that the aggression it ...
What Is the Shia Issue with the Diaspora?
Johnny Kortbawi 01/07 12:50 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Amal Hezbollah Expat Vote Diaspora Shiite
The issue of expatriate voting - if it makes it onto Parliament’s agenda - has taken on a sectarian dimension, placing the Shia community in an increasingly contradictory position, both in relation to the broader Lebanese diaspora and to the very idea of Lebanese emigration itself. This tension is especially perplexing given that Shias ...
Lebanon’s Shia Bloc and the Emigrant Vote Dilemma
Johnny Kortbawi 27/06 16:05 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Amal Hezbollah Diaspora Vote Elections Lebanon Shia
Lebanese emigrants have found themselves entangled in a crisis not of their making—namely, the existential crisis of the Shia community amid unfolding developments across the Middle East. Calls to amend the provision governing emigrant voting—whether by assigning them to Electoral District 16 or allowing them to vote for MPs in their home ...
Between the Christians of the Middle East and Tehran’s Judas
Johnny Kortbawi 24/06 10:00 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Iran Tehran Syria Damascus Christians
The 1994 bombing of Saydet al-Najat (or Our Lady of Deliverance Church) in Lebanon, given its historical weight and political context, remains a haunting reference point – almost a syndrome of its own. Like the Stockholm or London syndromes, the term “Our Lady of Deliverance Syndrome” is now invoked, especially by ...
Blind to the Fallout: Naïm Qassem’s Defiance
Johnny Kortbawi 20/06 13:50 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Hezbollah Israel Iran Naim Qassem war
As the world holds its breath over the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, global powers are urging de-escalation, hoping to prevent a broader war with potentially nuclear consequences. In this tense context, Naim Qassem stands out for his defiance of caution. Even the United States—Israel’s closest ally—is proceeding carefully, wary of being ...
The Resistance Axis: More Fragile Than It Seems
Johnny Kortbawi 17/06 08:00 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Hezbollah Israel Middle East Palestine Tehran
A few months ago, a political activist mockingly coined the term “Rice Pudding Axis” to describe the so-called obstructionist axis, after a major part of it collapsed in Lebanon following Hezbollah’s military failure and eventual capitulation. Unable to hold its ground, the group was forced to sign a humiliating agreement that effectively ...
A Berlin Wall in the Middle East
Johnny Kortbawi 13/06 16:40 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Lebanon Iran Israel Nuclear War United States
Israel’s strike on Iran marked a decisive rupture in modern Middle Eastern history—closing the chapter that began in 1979 and launching a new era in real time. October 7, 2023, was a pivotal moment for Israel, prompting a campaign of unrelenting confrontation against armed factions across the region—from Hamas to Hezbollah to the Houthis. ...
Instructions from the Al-Sahhaf Playbook
Johnny Kortbawi 10/06 11:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, Iraq’s former Minister of Information, became a global icon during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. His surreal press briefings - defiant, eloquent, and completely disconnected from reality - turned him into a legend of denial and spin. But Al-Sahhaf is no longer just a relic of Iraq’s past. He has become a mindset, a ...
Where Law Meets Anxiety
Johnny Kortbawi 06/06 17:20 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Lebanon is poised to enter a contentious and unpredictable debate ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections, with disputes already emerging over the electoral law that will govern the vote. Tensions escalated after Speaker Nabih Berri rejected expatriate voting and called for a new electoral law, describing the current legislation as a ...
In Search of Lebanon’s Financial and Economic Taif Agreement
Johnny Kortbawi 03/06 18:40 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Banks Central Bank of Lebanon economy finance
Lebanon’s economic crisis cannot be measured solely by the six years since its visible eruption in September 2019. Its roots extend much further back—to 1992 and the first government formed after the Taif Agreement. This period marked the beginning of Lebanon’s modern economic policies, shaped by the country’s financial establishment with ...
End of the ‘Change Movement’ Illusion
Johnny Kortbawi 30/05 13:10 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
There are many lessons to be drawn from the recent municipal elections held in Lebanon. While it's true that municipal contests in villages and small towns are often shaped by family ties and local dynamics and thus cannot be taken as clear indicators of parliamentary elections, the reality in major cities cannot be ignored – cities that ...
Bidding War: Municipal Unions Up for Grabs
Johnny Kortbawi 27/05 14:10 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
Lebanon Elections FPM Michel Murr Metn Jezzine
When Michel Aoun returned from French exile in 2005, he arrived with sweeping slogans and the confidence of a man fully in control of his political momentum. This tone gradually diminished once he became the head of state. At the time, he championed stronger Christian representation and pushed the boundaries of the powers allotted to him under ...
When Emigrants Pay the Price of Exile
Johnny Kortbawi 23/05 20:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Amal Free Patriotic Movement Europe Hezbollah Kuwait
None of the emigrants chose to leave voluntarily. They left either in pursuit of education abroad or to find work that could provide them with economic stability and safety amid the wars in Lebanon. When the electoral law was amended to include expatriates in the actual voting process, enthusiasm soared, and in the last election, a quarter of a ...
Lebanon Reduced to the Scale of a Mukhtar
Johnny Kortbawi 20/05 15:50 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Donald Trump Hezbollah Israel Joseph Aoun Saudi Arabia
While Saudi Arabia was signing investment deals with the United States worth over $600 billion, and President Donald Trump was pursuing economic ventures exceeding $4 trillion to boost the global economy and forge new alliances, Lebanon was engaging in international politics on the scale of a mukhtar, a village chief. As developments began to ...